The Rams have been plagued by injuries this year, affecting Matthew Stafford’s play significantly. But Jason Logan’s NFL picks see L.A. getting healthier and Stafford boosting his season-long stats this Thursday night.

Thursday Night Football goes “Hollywood” when the Minnesota Vikings visit the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

Los Angeles is trying to keep its head above water in this mid-week game and turns to veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford to weather Minnesota’s defensive storm. Luckily, Stafford isn’t alone and could have plenty of backup for a change in this primetime showdown.

I run down the spread, total, and player prop odds for Thursday Night Football, giving my best Vikings vs. Rams predictions and NFL picks for October 24.

Vikings Vs Rams TNF Prediction

My best bet

Matthew Stafford Over 235.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

My Analysis

Los Angeles Rams veteran QB Matthew Stafford has been in survival mode for the majority of L.A.’s games this season. 

With injuries to his receiving corps and offensive line, the 36-year-old has taken plenty of punishment while watching his production dwindle. However, Stafford is getting some of those bodies back in Week 8, including WR Cooper Kupp.

Kupp is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since suffering an injury in Week 2 and could be joined by offensive lineman Joe Noteboom, who arrives just in time to face a vaunted Minnesota Vikings pass rush.

Minnesota’s blitz-happy schemes are cooking up the highest pressure rate in the NFL, but this pass defense has shown cracks over the past three outings, giving up yardage totals of 389, 244, and 280 — third-most in the league over the past three games.

The Vikings boasted the lowest EPA per dropback in the opening three weeks of play, but that advanced metric has dipped to No. 12 since Week 4 with those three rival QB posting a collective success rate per dropback of 43.8% compared to 37.3% to start the schedule.

Due to those injuries to top receivers and cluster ailments to the o-line, Stafford’s 2024 advanced stats aren’t great when you measure him against pass pressure and blitzing attacks. However, for his career, the 16-year veteran has been one of the best quarterbacks at burning the blitz, including ranking No. 13 at PFF versus extra pass rusher in 2023.

Considering those returnees on offense, Minnesota’s dominant run defense (No. 1 in EPA allowed per handoff), and a game-script that has Los Angeles playing from behind (indoors on the fast track of SoFi Stadium), Stafford player projections are positive.

Stafford’s passing yard total for Thursday Night Football is set at 235.5 Over/Under — a bar he’s surpassed only twice all year. Forecasts all come in above that current Over/Under prop and range from 238 to 262 yards passing from the Rams quarterback, with my number at 246 yards through the air.

Stafford has the healthiest offense he’s had around him in a long time. Projections all sit north of 235 yards passing.

Kupp is back in the mix and models call for 60 or more yards in his first game back since Week 2.

Justin Jefferson is forecasted to have six or more catches against L.A. and has had at least six receptions in four straight games.

Vikings Vs Rams Opening Odds

• Spread: Minnesota -3 | Los Angeles +3
• Moneyline: Minnesota -164 | Los Angeles +138
• Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5

Vikings Vs Rams Spread And Over/Under Analysis

• Minnesota opened between -3 and -3.5 for Thursday Night Football and the line has bounced around that key number in the first few days of action.
• According to Covers Consensus, 80% of spread picks are on the Vikings.
• The Over/Under total opened at 46.5 and has climbed to 48.5 O/U with the Rams getting some important pieces back on offense and the Vikings defense showing holes versus the pass.
• Covers Consensus shows 53% of O/U picks on the Over.

Vikings Vs Rams Betting Trend To Know

The Rams have been regular season home underdogs just 12 times under head coach Sean McVay. Los Angeles is 6-6 ATS in as a pup in those homestands but has gone 8-4 Over/Under in those spots. 

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